| "The Government is us; we are the government, you and me." - Theodore Roosevelt
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Question: Can economic special interest groups backed by big money buy an initiative or referendum?
No.
Research has proven that voters are likely to vote down an initiative or referendum if they know that it is being backed by big money and economic and private special interest groups like large corporations, wealthy individuals, and narrowly defined business interests and private interest groups. For example, research done by the political scientists Todd Donovan, Shawn Bowler, David McCuan, and Ken Furandez found that while 40% of all initiatives on the California ballot from 1986-1996 passed, only 14% of the initiatives pushed by special interests passed. In addition, Ann Campbell’s research on special interest backed initiatives in Colorado from 1966 to 1994 found that during those 28 years only one initiative pushed by special interests was successful at the ballot box.
On the other hand, citizen groups with broad based support and substantial funding have a far better chance of getting a ballot measure passed even when economic and private special interest groups outspend them. Special interests groups know this. That is way they will most often put their money behind stopping a ballot measure rather than supporting an initiative or referendum that can be recognized by the voters as being backed by big money and economic special interest groups. They are far more successful at this. Professor Liz Gerber at the University of California estimates that special interests are able to stop a ballot 59% of the time. This is not as impressive a figure as it seems when you consider that voters only support 41% of all the statewide initiatives to appear on the ballot regardless of who supports them; but it is significant. However, when you compare the initiative, referendum, and recall process to our representative government, it is quite clear that broad based citizen groups have a far better chance of being successful using the initiative, referendum, and recall process then they do relying on a representative system that has become dominated by large global corporations and financial institutions, wealthy individuals, and well connected private special interest groups.